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A new seasonal forecast released by the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts that Finland will experience a slightly warmer and possibly slightly wetter winter than usual. The forecast, discussed by meteorologist Joonas Koskela on the Forecan weather blog, is based on the latest ECMWF seasonal outlook for the period from December to February. Koskela notes that the model indicates a temperature anomaly of about 1–2 °C above long‑term averages across Finland. “In Finland, the deviation towards warmer temperatures is expected to be roughly 1–2 °C over the entire country compared to long‑term averages,” he writes. Precipitation is projected to be either normal or marginally above average for the winter season. The forecast, however, carries significant uncertainty. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is expected to remain negative throughout the winter. A negative NAO typically brings colder and drier conditions to Northern Europe, as weakened westerly winds allow low‑pressure systems to move southward. “In that case, we would see more air masses from the east and north between the east and north of Finland,” Koskela explains, suggesting that such a pattern could counter the model’s warm bias. The seasonal outlook follows an exceptionally warm autumn. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, October 2023 was the warmest month on record, with an average temperature 0.9 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Ocean temperatures outside the polar regions were also unusually warm, and the El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific was intensifying. The ECMWF forecast therefore projects a winter that, while warmer than average, may still be influenced by the negative NAO and associated weather patterns. The final outcome will depend on how these competing factors evolve over the coming months. Article source: Iltalehti | Image credit: Iltalehti
A new seasonal forecast released by the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts that Finland will experience a slightly warmer and possibly slightly wetter winter than usual. The forecast, discussed by meteorologist Joonas Koskela on the Forecan weather blog, is based on the latest ECMWF seasonal outlook for the period from December to February. Koskela notes that the model indicates a temperature anomaly of about 1–2 °C above long‑term averages across Finland. “In Finland, the deviation towards warmer temperatures is expected to be roughly 1–2 °C over the entire country compared to long‑term averages,” he writes. Precipitation is projected to be either normal or marginally above average for the winter season. The forecast, however, carries significant uncertainty. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is expected to remain negative throughout the winter. A negative NAO typically brings colder and drier conditions to Northern Europe, as weakened westerly winds allow low‑pressure systems to move southward. “In that case, we would see more air masses from the east and north between the east and north of Finland,” Koskela explains, suggesting that such a pattern could counter the model’s warm bias. The seasonal outlook follows an exceptionally warm autumn. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, October 2023 was the warmest month on record, with an average temperature 0.9 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Ocean temperatures outside the polar regions were also unusually warm, and the El Niño phenomenon in the tropical Pacific was intensifying. The ECMWF forecast therefore projects a winter that, while warmer than average, may still be influenced by the negative NAO and associated weather patterns. The final outcome will depend on how these competing factors evolve over the coming months.
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