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A new report from the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has advised the Indian government to maintain its current energy procurement strategy and resist granting unilateral trade concessions to the United States, despite the risk of potential US tariffs reaching up to 100 percent.
The GTRI report follows the passage of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026. The legislation, which passed the US House of Representatives on September 16 by a vote of 262-159 following Senate approval on August 7, authorizes the US President to impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on goods originating from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil and natural gas. This measure places India and China, both significant buyers of Russian energy, at risk of increased trade barriers.
The GTRI stated that India should prioritize its energy security, noting that the country relies on imports for more than 88 percent of its crude oil requirements. According to the report, discounted Russian crude has played a role in lowering India’s import bill and managing domestic inflation. In July 2026, India imported USD 7.27 billion worth of crude from Russia, representing a significant portion of its total monthly crude imports of USD 14.21 billion.
The report highlighted a shift in India’s energy sourcing, noting that Russia’s share of Indian crude imports has risen significantly since 2022, while the share of Gulf suppliers has declined to below 30 percent. The GTRI argued that Washington may use the threat of tariffs to pressure New Delhi into reducing its reliance on Russian energy or to secure concessions in a bilateral trade agreement.
The GTRI cautioned that making such concessions would not necessarily protect India from future US trade actions, citing the use of Section 301 investigations and other sectoral trade measures against various trading partners. The report pointed to the 25 percent tariff on Indian goods related to Russia that was imposed in July 2025 and subsequently withdrawn in February 2026 as evidence of the unpredictable nature of these trade pressures.
“India should not allow US tariff threats to determine its energy policy,” the report stated, adding that the government should continue to purchase Russian oil as long as it remains commercially competitive while negotiating firmly with Washington.
The GTRI noted that the full impact of the potential US tariffs on Indian exports remains uncertain, as the specific tariff rates, affected products, and implementation timelines have yet to be announced by the United States.
Article source: www.russiaherald.com | Image credit: www.russiaherald.com
