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More than nine million votes could decide Brazil’s next president as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro face off in a second‑round election on Sunday, 25 October. Those who voted for other candidates in the first round may be decisive, as the margin between the two finalists was narrow. In the first round, held on 4 October, 119,300,788 valid votes were cast. Lula received 53,879,538 votes (45.16 %) and Bolsonaro 56,104,503 votes (47.03 %). The remaining 9,316,747 valid votes (7.8 %) went to candidates who did not advance to the runoff. Bolsonaro’s lead was 2,224,965 votes. The winner of the second round must obtain an absolute majority of valid votes, excluding blank and null ballots. If the turnout and the number of valid votes remain the same as in the first round, a candidate would need 59,650,395 votes to win. However, the required number could rise or fall depending on voter participation. Because the two candidates are competing for the same pool of voters, a shift in preference by even a small number of voters can have a double effect: the losing candidate loses a vote while the winning candidate gains one. Thus, Lula would need to net at least 2,224,966 more votes than Bolsonaro to overcome the first‑round gap, assuming all other votes remain unchanged. In addition to courting the supporters of eliminated candidates, both campaigns must mobilize their own bases. Turnout variations in key regions could alter the balance, especially if one side’s supporters are more or less likely to vote in the runoff. The final outcome will be determined as the vote count progresses through the states. The election will decide who will lead Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, for the next four years. Article source: De Ultimo Minuto | Image credit: De Ultimo Minuto
More than nine million votes could decide Brazil’s next president as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro face off in a second‑round election on Sunday, 25 October. Those who voted for other candidates in the first round may be decisive, as the margin between the two finalists was narrow. In the first round, held on 4 October, 119,300,788 valid votes were cast. Lula received 53,879,538 votes (45.16 %) and Bolsonaro 56,104,503 votes (47.03 %). The remaining 9,316,747 valid votes (7.8 %) went to candidates who did not advance to the runoff. Bolsonaro’s lead was 2,224,965 votes. The winner of the second round must obtain an absolute majority of valid votes, excluding blank and null ballots. If the turnout and the number of valid votes remain the same as in the first round, a candidate would need 59,650,395 votes to win. However, the required number could rise or fall depending on voter participation. Because the two candidates are competing for the same pool of voters, a shift in preference by even a small number of voters can have a double effect: the losing candidate loses a vote while the winning candidate gains one. Thus, Lula would need to net at least 2,224,966 more votes than Bolsonaro to overcome the first‑round gap, assuming all other votes remain unchanged. In addition to courting the supporters of eliminated candidates, both campaigns must mobilize their own bases. Turnout variations in key regions could alter the balance, especially if one side’s supporters are more or less likely to vote in the runoff. The final outcome will be determined as the vote count progresses through the states. The election will decide who will lead Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, for the next four years.
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