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Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in the two most recent exit polls In the two latest exit polls conducted before Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday, Flávio Bolsonaro, the ultraconservative senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by two percentage points. The polls, carried out by the country’s leading polling firms Quaest and Datafolha, show Bolsonaro with 51 % of valid votes to Lula’s 49 %. Both studies have a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, meaning the results are statistically tied. Datafolha’s most recent survey, released on Thursday, found the candidates tied at 50 % each. In the last 48 hours, Bolsonaro has gained a small advantage, with the poll now showing him at 48 % of voting intentions when white and null ballots and abstentions are included, compared with 47 % for Lula. Three percent of respondents said they would cast a null vote, and two percent remain undecided. Quaest’s survey, based on 3,702 respondents, reports Bolsonaro at 46 % and Lula at 45 %, a one‑point difference that mirrors the result from the previous day. Datafolha’s figures are based on 4,050 face‑to‑face interviews conducted between Friday and Saturday, the final day of campaigning. Quaest’s sample of 3,702 respondents was collected over the same period. In the first round of voting on 4 October, Bolsonaro received 47 % of the vote, two points ahead of Lula. Historically, no candidate who finished second in the first round has won the second round in Brazil’s presidential elections since the end of the military dictatorship in 1985. To improve his chances in the runoff, Lula has intensified his presence on social media and in public rallies, while also attempting to tarnish Bolsonaro’s image by highlighting alleged corruption and ties to organized crime. Bolsonaro has adopted a more moderate tone, emphasizing themes such as “future,” “prosperity,” and “change,” and has pledged to exclude the most vulnerable families from his fiscal adjustment plan. Article source: De Ultimo Minuto | Image credit: De Ultimo Minuto
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in the two most recent exit polls In the two latest exit polls conducted before Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday, Flávio Bolsonaro, the ultraconservative senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by two percentage points. The polls, carried out by the country’s leading polling firms Quaest and Datafolha, show Bolsonaro with 51 % of valid votes to Lula’s 49 %. Both studies have a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, meaning the results are statistically tied. Datafolha’s most recent survey, released on Thursday, found the candidates tied at 50 % each. In the last 48 hours, Bolsonaro has gained a small advantage, with the poll now showing him at 48 % of voting intentions when white and null ballots and abstentions are included, compared with 47 % for Lula. Three percent of respondents said they would cast a null vote, and two percent remain undecided. Quaest’s survey, based on 3,702 respondents, reports Bolsonaro at 46 % and Lula at 45 %, a one‑point difference that mirrors the result from the previous day. Datafolha’s figures are based on 4,050 face‑to‑face interviews conducted between Friday and Saturday, the final day of campaigning. Quaest’s sample of 3,702 respondents was collected over the same period. In the first round of voting on 4 October, Bolsonaro received 47 % of the vote, two points ahead of Lula. Historically, no candidate who finished second in the first round has won the second round in Brazil’s presidential elections since the end of the military dictatorship in 1985. To improve his chances in the runoff, Lula has intensified his presence on social media and in public rallies, while also attempting to tarnish Bolsonaro’s image by highlighting alleged corruption and ties to organized crime. Bolsonaro has adopted a more moderate tone, emphasizing themes such as “future,” “prosperity,” and “change,” and has pledged to exclude the most vulnerable families from his fiscal adjustment plan.
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