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Opposition Senator Vishnu Dhanpaul says Trinidad and Tobago is in recession, citing figures in the Government's 2026 Review of the Economy and a Central Bank forecast. Speaking at a People's National Movement media conference, Dhanpaul said the economy contracted by 1.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025 and by 1.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2026. He said the Central Bank's Economic Data Pack projected a further 3.2 per cent contraction for the second quarter of 2026. The distinction is important: the first two quarterly figures were presented as recorded contractions, while the second-quarter figure was a forecast. Dhanpaul used the sequence to support his assertion that the country was in recession. He also cited the Review of the Economy as recording a 0.5 per cent contraction for 2025 and projecting a 2.2 per cent contraction for 2026. Dhanpaul challenged the use of an International Monetary Fund growth forecast to dispute the opposition's position. He argued that Trinidad and Tobago's official national data sources included the Central Statistical Office, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, while international institutions relied partly on information supplied by domestic authorities. He further pointed to weaker lending indicators and new-vehicle sales as signs of declining confidence. According to figures he presented, new-vehicle sales fell from 3,273 in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2,226 in the first quarter of 2026. The recession assessment and interpretation of the figures were Dhanpaul's. He said the Minister of Finance should account for the economic figures contained in documents presented to Parliament.
Opposition Senator Vishnu Dhanpaul says Trinidad and Tobago is in recession, citing figures in the Government’s 2026 Review of the Economy and a Central Bank forecast.
Speaking at a People’s National Movement media conference, Dhanpaul said the economy contracted by 1.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025 and by 1.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2026. He said the Central Bank’s Economic Data Pack projected a further 3.2 per cent contraction for the second quarter of 2026.
The distinction is important: the first two quarterly figures were presented as recorded contractions, while the second-quarter figure was a forecast. Dhanpaul used the sequence to support his assertion that the country was in recession.
He also cited the Review of the Economy as recording a 0.5 per cent contraction for 2025 and projecting a 2.2 per cent contraction for 2026.
Dhanpaul challenged the use of an International Monetary Fund growth forecast to dispute the opposition’s position. He argued that Trinidad and Tobago’s official national data sources included the Central Statistical Office, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, while international institutions relied partly on information supplied by domestic authorities.
He further pointed to weaker lending indicators and new-vehicle sales as signs of declining confidence. According to figures he presented, new-vehicle sales fell from 3,273 in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 2,226 in the first quarter of 2026.
The recession assessment and interpretation of the figures were Dhanpaul’s. He said the Minister of Finance should account for the economic figures contained in documents presented to Parliament.
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