Canada’s counter‑tariffs on U.S. goods have triggered a wave of retaliatory measures from the United States, but retail experts say it will take time before consumers see price increases on store shelves.
Canada imposed duties ranging from 15 to 50 percent on nearly $28 billion of American products, including carpets, electronics and clothing. In response, President Donald Trump announced a ban on certain Canadian imports effective September 29.
Matt Poirier, vice‑president of federal government relations for the Retail Council of Canada, explained that retailers will first work through existing inventory before new, tariffed goods enter the market. “There’s an inventory that’s just been juiced up, so it’s going to take time for that inventory at those prices to go through,” Poirier said. “Once that inventory is sold or expired, that’s when Canadians could start to see prices increase.”
He added that items with shorter shelf lives and fast‑selling products will likely see price rises first, followed by durable goods such as ovens and washing machines.
Andreas Schotter, an international business professor at Western University’s Ivey Business School, noted that a 50‑percent tariff does not automatically translate into a 50‑percent price increase at the register. “The tariff cost is negotiated along the supply chain,” he said. “The American supplier may lower its price, the Canadian importer or retailer may accept a smaller margin, and the customer may pay more.”
Schotter also said that higher prices are unlikely to hit shelves immediately. “Most consumers will see a lag as existing inventory is sold and more expensive shipments arrive,” he said. “Goods already sitting in Canadian warehouses or stores were imported at the old cost.”
Queen’s University economics professor Beverly Lapham warned that once prices rise, they may not fall back to pre‑tariff levels even if trade tensions ease. “These price increases get entrenched,” she said. “Even temporary tariffs can have a long‑term effect on inflation and consumers’ purchasing power.”
Lapham also highlighted that the impact will be uneven, with lower‑income Canadians likely to feel the pain more acutely.
A Bank of Canada report released in May 2026 found that a 25‑percent counter‑tariff imposed on a range of American goods in 2025 resulted in about a six‑percent price increase on tariffed items. The report noted that “retailers’ expectations matter,” as announcements about tariffs can trigger rapid price adjustments based on how long retailers expect the tariffs to last.
This article was first published by The Canadian Press on September 9, 2026.
Brett Bundale, The Canadian Press
Article and image source: prpeak.com
