Ajunge România la mâna lui Putin dacă AfD ia Germania? Politolog: „E un simptom, nu o cucerire”

### Political Analysts and Military Experts Assess Impact of AfD’s Electoral Gains in Germany

The recent electoral performance of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt has prompted discussions regarding the potential impact on European stability and Romania’s security. While the results have caused concern in some European circles, experts suggest that the situation should be viewed as a political symptom rather than an immediate shift in power.

#### Electoral Context and Institutional Barriers
In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD secured 43.8% of the vote, winning 39 out of 83 seats. Despite this significant result, the party failed to achieve an absolute majority. Radu Albu Comănescu, a political scientist, notes that while the result is a “strong signal,” institutional and demographic realities in Germany act as a “firewall” (Brandmauer) against the party’s rapid rise to federal power.

“The AfD remains in opposition or in a precarious position without a majority and without partners,” Comănescu stated. He emphasized that the German federal system, the proportional electoral process, and the resistance of mainstream parties to form coalitions with the AfD make a federal takeover unlikely in the near future. The next federal elections in Germany are scheduled for 2029.

#### Implications for European Policy
Experts acknowledge that a stronger AfD presence could complicate European coordination on issues such as defense, energy, and migration. However, Comănescu argues that the party’s influence remains limited by the structure of the German federal system. He characterizes the current political climate as a warning sign for mainstream parties to address the underlying causes of voter dissatisfaction, such as economic performance and migration, rather than a systemic regime change.

#### Perspectives on Security and Romania
General (ret.) Marius Crăciun, a former commander of Romania’s Special Operations Forces, offered a measured perspective on the potential risks to Romania. While acknowledging that a shift toward populist or euroskeptic governments in major EU nations could weaken the political cohesion of the EU and NATO, he expressed skepticism that such parties would dismantle existing democratic structures or abandon defense commitments once in power.

Crăciun pointed to the example of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who, despite initial concerns from Brussels, maintained a pragmatic approach to governance. He suggested that extremist parties often moderate their stances once they face the complexities of governing.

“Regardless of who governs Germany, they will continue to be concerned with defense,” Crăciun said. He advised that Romania’s best course of action is to focus on strengthening its own military and defense industry, citing Poland as a model for national security.

#### Lessons for Bucharest
Both experts highlighted a broader lesson for Romanian politics. Comănescu argued that the rise of populist movements is often fueled by a “vacuum of power and trust” created by ongoing conflicts between mainstream political parties. He suggested that when traditional elites fail to provide concrete solutions to social and economic grievances, voters are more likely to turn toward radical alternatives.

Article and image source: adevarul.ro