The Proxy War That Failed – Eritrea’s Illusion of Weakening Ethiopia

Eritrea has allegedly engaged in a long-term strategy to undermine Ethiopia through military force, political disruption, and the support of insurgent factions. According to Legesse Tulu, an Ethiopian diplomat and former government official, these efforts include backing a coalition of armed groups known as Tsimdo, which consists of the Amhara Fano, the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front, and the Oromo Liberation Army.

The report claims that Eritrea seeks to weaken Ethiopia to prevent it from becoming a dominant power in the Horn of Africa. Tulu argues that this strategy relies on the logic of proxy warfare, where Asmara allegedly provides support to internal rivals of the Ethiopian federal government. However, the article asserts that this coalition is inherently fragile, as the participating groups hold fundamentally different political goals and are united only by their opposition to the central government in Addis Ababa.

Beyond military and political interference, the report alleges that Eritrea is actively destabilizing Ethiopia’s economy. It claims that networks linked to Eritrea are facilitating illicit cross-border trade and informal currency exchange operations near the northern border. These activities are accused of stripping Ethiopia of foreign currency earnings, inflating prices, and undermining the value of the Ethiopian Birr.

The article further contends that Eritrea utilizes propaganda and information campaigns to exploit Ethiopia’s internal ethnic and political divisions. By manipulating narratives regarding regional autonomy and nationalism, these efforts aim to erode public trust in the federal government.

Despite these challenges, Tulu maintains that Ethiopia has demonstrated resilience rather than collapse. He notes that the federal security apparatus has maintained its capacity to respond to threats, and the government continues to prioritize political engagement and negotiation as a path toward stability. The report concludes that while Ethiopia faces significant domestic difficulties, the strategy of using proxy conflicts to weaken the state has failed to achieve its intended objectives.

Article source: allafrica.com | Image credit: Wikipedia