A leading political analyst has warned that the upcoming US midterms on November 3 may not prevent further erosion of democratic norms, describing the current administration as already operating under autocratic principles. In a Financial Times discussion, Robert Kagan, a former Republican scholar and historian, argued that the US has entered a phase of ‘transition to dictatorship,’ with key institutions—including the Justice Department, FBI, and Pentagon—subverted to serve the interests of former President Donald Trump.
Kagan, who has tracked Trump’s presidency since 2016, stated that the administration now controls what he called ‘power ministries’—agencies that, in other countries, would be independent. He cited the Justice Department’s selective use of legal power against political opponents, the militarisation of federal agencies, and the purge of professional civil servants as evidence of a shift away from democratic governance. ‘We have an FBI that is completely controlled by the administration,’ he said, adding that the Pentagon had been turned into ‘a personal arm of the president.’
Despite the midterms taking place, Kagan expressed concern that Trump could disrupt the electoral process if results do not favour him. ‘It will not be difficult for him to disrupt the counting and perhaps even the seating of the next Congress,’ he warned. Even in the event of a Democratic victory, Kagan suggested Trump might ignore Congress, as he has largely done during his first term, with support from his party.
The scholar drew parallels to historical transitions to autocracy, noting that elections alone do not guarantee democratic stability. ‘Elections have been part of transitions to dictatorship before,’ he said, adding that the US now faces a ‘constitutional crisis’ if Trump resists a change in power. Kagan also highlighted the role of fear and opportunism among Republicans, many of whom have accommodated themselves to Trump’s agenda for career or ideological reasons.
Kagan’s warnings come amid broader concerns about the future of US democracy. He described Trump’s second term as fundamentally different from his first, enabled by a Supreme Court ruling that effectively granted the president unchecked power. ‘The institutions were not self-enforcing,’ he explained, blaming political party loyalty for undermining constitutional principles. He also identified a growing network of ‘true believers’—individuals committed to reshaping the US into a hierarchical society based on race and religion, rather than liberal democratic values.
The Financial Times discussion, featuring Kagan alongside Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator, framed the midterms as a critical test for American democracy. While Kagan acknowledged the possibility of democratic forces prevailing, he stressed that the current administration retains the power—and, in his view, the will—to resist any shift in power.
Kagan’s family history as refugees from Nazi Germany underscored his personal stake in the conversation. ‘My mother and father were both refugees,’ he said. ‘They had to flee Nazi Germany. These people shape my reaction to some of the things we’re now seeing and hearing with the rise of the radical right in our time.’ His warnings reflect a broader alarm among observers about the trajectory of US governance under Trump’s leadership.