Opposition Warns of Unrealistic 2026 Budget Revenue Projections

Former Minister of Finance, Colm Imbert, has challenged the government’s 2026 budget revenue projections during an opposition press conference. The projections were based on an oil price assumption of US$73.25 per barrel, significantly higher than current rates. Imbert stated that each US$1 drop in oil price could result in approximately TT$200 million in lost annual revenue, and a US$15 difference could potentially reduce projected revenue by approximately TT$3 billion. He warned that actual losses may be higher due to international forecasts, particularly those from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In addition, Imbert claimed that certain expenditures were not adequately considered in the budget, including a 10% public sector wage increase and advance payments on back pay. These could lead to an additional expenditure between TT$500 million and TT$1 billion in 2026. Imbert voiced concerns over the potential difficulties in tax collection and the possibility of widespread tax avoidance due to newly introduced taxes. He expressed doubt over the realization of projected revenue from alcohol taxes, new surcharges, and compliance penalties. As a result, the opposition warns of a larger-than-expected fiscal deficit and the likelihood of increased borrowing or future tax measures.

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