Key petroleum fuels experienced a significant price hike on Monday following the escalation of conflict in Iran over the weekend. Particularly impacted was diesel, with futures prices jumping higher than crude prices due to disruption in Middle East supply. Diesel futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange saw a 17% surge, surpassing the 13% increase in Brent Crude prices. The Strait of Hormuz, a key transport route, is effectively closed due to the conflict, impacting fuel shipments from the Middle East and leading to double-digit price increases. Analysts from Kpler identify diesel as being at the most immediate risk due to its use in military logistics, regional supply concentration, and the difficulty in quickly replacing it with alternative supply. The effects of the conflict on diesel are predicted to be ‘very high’ with the lack of alternative supply exacerbating the situation. Kpler’s analysis indicates that 10.3% of global gasoil trade, 19.4% of jet fuel, and 16% of gasoline and naphtha trade by sea transit the Strait of Hormuz, predicting severe supply shocks if the closure persists.
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