South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) is facing its most significant electoral setback to date, with preliminary results from local government elections indicating a continued decline for the party that has dominated the country’s politics since the end of apartheid. Current projections suggest the ANC will secure approximately 31 percent of the national vote, a decline of roughly 14 percentage points compared to its 2021 performance. The party is expected to fall short of an outright majority in all eight major metropolitan areas, including Johannesburg and Pretoria. Analysts attribute this erosion of support to public frustration over persistent corruption, poor municipal management, and an unemployment rate exceeding 34 percent. Political analyst Daniel Silke noted that the mismanagement of municipalities has diminished the “emotional attachment” voters previously held for the party due to its history in the liberation struggle. The Democratic Alliance (DA), the country’s second-largest party, has seen modest gains, securing about a quarter of the vote. While the party has made inroads in urban centers, analysts suggest it has not experienced a dramatic surge. DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis stated that the party has successfully attracted one million black voters, aiming to move beyond its historical perception as a party representing the wealthy white elite. However, political scientist Amanda Gouws suggested the DA may have reached a “ceiling,” noting that its growth remains incremental rather than transformative. The uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, led by former president Jacob Zuma, has emerged as a significant third force in its first municipal election. The party is on track to finish third nationally, surpassing the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). Analysts identify the MK as the primary beneficiary of the ANC’s fragmented voter base, noting that Zuma’s personal popularity has been a decisive factor in the party’s performance, particularly in his home region near Durban. Voter turnout was recorded at approximately 54.5 percent of the 29.2 million registered voters, an increase from the 46 percent seen in 2021. Despite this, experts remain concerned about youth apathy. Professor Sethulego Matebesi of the University of the Free State observed that many young people registered to vote but ultimately abstained, citing a lack of perceived change in their circumstances. The lack of outright majorities in key cities is expected to trigger complex coalition negotiations. Previous local coalitions in South Africa have frequently been characterized by instability and internal disputes, which often hinder the delivery of basic public services. Analysts warn that these local negotiations may be further complicated by the existing national unity government, as well as deep-seated animosity between potential coalition partners, such as the DA and ActionSA in Gauteng province.
Article source: The Independent Online | Image credit: The Independent Online