El Niño risk could worsen food crisis in vulnerable regions

**GENEVA** — A strong El Niño weather pattern could push nearly 49 million more people into serious food insecurity across some of the world’s most vulnerable regions by the end of next year, according to the World Food Program (WFP).

In a recent report, the United Nations agency stated there is an 81 percent likelihood that a very strong El Niño will develop. Sea surface temperatures have reached their highest levels since at least 1982, potentially making this the most intense event recorded since 1950.

El Niño, caused by the periodic warming of ocean waters in the Pacific, disrupts global weather systems. It is typically associated with drought in Southern Africa, delayed monsoon rains in parts of Asia, and unpredictable rainfall elsewhere.

“These are events that in the past have triggered large-scale hunger,” said Jean-Martin Bauer, director of the WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service.

The WFP based its findings on an assessment of 45 countries highly vulnerable to El Niño. The agency estimated that acute food insecurity could increase by nearly 49 million people, bringing the total affected population to approximately 274 million. This represents a 22 percent increase over the number of people currently experiencing crisis-level hunger or worse.

Central America and Southern Africa are projected to be among the hardest hit. Food insecurity in Central America could rise by about 83 percent, while Southern Africa may see an increase of nearly 75 percent. Additionally, Southern Africa, South America, and the Caribbean could each experience an additional 12 million people falling into acute food insecurity.

Bauer noted that global food markets are entering the El Niño period from a relatively stable position, supported by strong harvests in 2025. However, ongoing conflict in the Middle East and potential crop losses from extreme weather could drive food prices higher.

While past El Niño events have not typically caused major global food price spikes, they have frequently led to regional shortages. These shortages, combined with rising local prices, can restrict vulnerable households’ access to food, Bauer explained.

The report also highlighted that funding cuts from the United States and European donors in 2025 have weakened tracking efforts. Bauer described the situation as a growing shortage of food-security data necessary to measure El Niño’s impact.

The WFP conducted approximately 1.1 million household surveys in 2024, which dropped to about 800,000 in 2025. Data collection has decreased further this year due to ongoing budget constraints. Bauer warned that reduced monitoring hinders the ability to quickly detect emerging food crises during a high-risk period.

Current forecasts indicate that parts of East Africa, the Sahel, Central America, and the Caribbean will face below-average rainfall, while the risk of flooding could increase in Somalia and surrounding areas. Major impacts are also projected across South and Southeast Asia, where drought conditions, uneven monsoons, and localized flooding threaten farming and food production.

Although forecasts carry inherent uncertainty and regional impacts will vary, the WFP stressed the need for governments and aid organizations to prepare in advance.

Richard Choularton, director of the WFP’s Climate and Resilience Service, stated that the agency has expanded early-action programs in 18 countries. These initiatives have reached more than 1.3 million people this year by providing cash support and other assistance to help communities cope with extreme weather.

Article and image source: venezuelastar.com