فائض الصين التجاري يتجاوز تريليون دولار للعام الثاني

China’s trade surplus surpassed one trillion dollars for the second consecutive year, according to official customs data released on Tuesday. In October, exports rose 35.2 % year‑over‑year, driven by strong performance in advanced‑technology sectors such as semiconductors and automobiles. Imports increased 41.6 % on the same basis, reducing the monthly surplus to $105.3 billion from $133.5 billion in September. From January to October, the country posted a cumulative surplus of $1.04 trillion, approaching the $1.2 trillion record set last year. David Sha, an economist at Modis Analytics, said the export momentum is likely to continue in the remaining months of the year, with electronics and automotive sectors expected to remain key drivers. He noted that weak domestic demand is pushing Chinese firms to export more, and that the large surplus reflects structural challenges such as excess productive capacity, high savings rates, and sluggish local consumption. Alicia Garcia Herero, senior economist for the Asia‑Pacific region at Natixis, added that these factors are prompting Chinese companies to increase exports as several countries seek to protect their own industries. She cautioned that the current situation is not sustainable in the long term. Within China, competition is intensifying. S. Zhou, a manufacturer of eyewear in Jiangxi province, described how product similarity has led to price wars, forcing firms to compete primarily on cost rather than quality. External risks are also mounting. Sha highlighted potential threats from the European Union’s planned restrictions on certain Chinese imports and rising U.S. tariffs. He warned that a slowdown in U.S. investment in artificial‑intelligence infrastructure could reduce global demand for chips and electronics, negatively impacting Chinese exports. Trade negotiations are expected to remain a focal point at the upcoming APEC summit in Shenzhen later this month, where U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet. Chinese exporters have benefited from a two‑month extension of the trade truce with Washington, which is set to expire in January, but the future of the truce remains uncertain. Despite these challenges, exports continue to support China’s economic growth. Analysts project the country’s GDP growth for the year to be between 4.5 % and 5 %, close to the government’s target but slightly below the 5 % growth recorded last year. They view robust export performance as a key engine for sustaining growth amid domestic and global pressures.

Article source: Al Bilad | Image credit: Al Bilad

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