Maris Andzans, director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies, has outlined several potential escalation scenarios regarding Russia’s security threat to the Baltic states. In a recent statement, Andzans cautioned that future conflicts may not mirror traditional warfare, noting that the region must remain prepared for unconventional tactics.
According to Andzans, potential threats include targeted missile or drone strikes, operations conducted by special forces along the border, or the landing of troops on Baltic Sea islands. He emphasized that while some may perceive Russia as weak, such assessments should not be viewed through a strictly Western lens, as a weakened Russia could potentially become more dangerous.
Andzans highlighted that Ukraine currently remains the only nation capable of surpassing Russia in drone technology. He noted the importance of NATO allies in regional defense, citing the recent deployment of German fighter jets to Latvia to assist in airspace protection as a positive development.
To improve regional security, Andzans advocated for a significant increase in the presence of allied armed forces. He suggested that the current deployment of a single brigade should be expanded to the size of a division to better deter potential aggression.